Yup. I'm sure that I have not a few Republicans and Democrats rolling on the floor with that one. I am very aware that Barack Obama needs to win multiple states in which he is not ahead in order for this to occur. John McCain also needs this to happen, on a much more massive scale than my map, in order to win. He thinks he is going to win. I say, if it's good for the goose....
First off, why am I so optimistic? Well, firstly, I think that the youth vote is seriously underestimated in ALL the polls because of the cell phone issue. I think the fact that very few of the 'serious' polls do anything with cell phone users is a fundamental problem. The ones that do tend to be considered 'outliers.' Hmm.
Second: early voting. There has be a lot of it in states where it is permitted. There is no hard evidence, other than what are essentially rudimentary exit polls, but everything on the early voting seems to have broken towards Barack Obama. Hard.
Third. I think John McCain and Sarah Palin thoroughly disgusted voters with their appeals to baser instincts over the last weeks of the campaign. I may wind up debating with Republicans for the rest of my life who swear that this is not what they were doing. Please. His staff knew exactly what is was doing with all of this. Associates with terrorists. Whether it is Bill Ayers or trying to assassinate Rashid Khalidi's character and then tie Obama to him. Socialism. Not pro-America. Yeah, they knew exactly what they were doing. The crowds they drew were exactly what they were looking for. The problem is that a lot of independents, and moderate Dems and Republicans did not like what they saw. In a nutshell, this was, by far, the worst run campaign by a major party candidate in my lifetime. Yes, I was alive for George McGovern.
Put all of that together, you get a popular vote landslide. You want me to commit to a number? 8 points or better. Roughly 53-45 or better, assuming that Nader, Barr and company grab roughly 2 percent this cycle.
But where do I get 406 electoral votes. Let's see:
So it is exactly what it looks like. Obama runs the table and then some. The only possible pickups he whiffs on are West Virginia and Omaha. (I am still not to sure about Omaha. It might be 407-131.) McCain gets shut out on everything he's been hoping to hold on to/regain. No Pennsylvania. No Virginia. No North Carolina or Florida. Georgia? Yup. Remember how I was talking about the early voting? Well a LOT of people did early voting in Georgia. Nearly 2 million people have already voted in Georgia. The entire state only cast 3.3 million votes in 2004. The people actually going to the polls tomorrow on going to have to break heavily for McCain for him to actually carry Georgia. I don't think thats going to happen.
Other "oddballs" here. He loses Arizona: Momentum has been heavy against him here. That will be what kills him here. Ditto Montana and North Dakota as Governor Brian Schweitzer comes through with his state of Montana and helps North Dakota along as well. It case no one noticed, both of those states have seriously tightened in the final weeks.
Missouri. All I have to say is: Kansas City and St. Louis, especially St. Louis. This state has been right there for years. I think it comes to our column this time. I also think that Sen. Kit Bond should be very happy to not be running this year and should probably stop being as high profile in his support of McCain as he has been. Oops! Too late.
Ohio. My home state. Won't be as close as some seem to think, despite Kevin DeWine's best try. Everyone here is voting (and yes, Kevin, they are real voters). Most of the everyones I know are not voting for McCain. Also, another early voting state. Columbus and Cleveland already have huge numbers of votes in. Neither city is going to be pro-McCain. Even they know that.
Finally, my biggest quandary. Indiana. That's right, Georgia, Montana, North Dakota, Arizona and Missouri don't bother me as much as picking Indiana for Obama. Still, this is the home state of Birch and Evan Bayh. I think it will go to Obama but, if I had to pick one state that I may be wrong about, this, believe it or not, is it.
There you have it. My landslide projection. Nobody else seems to have enough cojones to pick this, so I will. Could I be wrong? Even very wrong? Hell yeah! But I think this is how it will play out. I thought very hard about this before I decided this map. I know how "out there" it seems. Everyone seems to like to discount the youth vote. Nobody seems to be factoring in the early voters.
And, lastly I do think as Kathleen Parker has suggested and Governor Mike Easley (D-NC) also seemed to hint at a few weeks ago on Rachel Maddow's show, that a "reverse Bradley effect" may actually occur. People who aren't comfortable telling a pollster that they will vote for a black man, but, when they get in the voting booth, do. Sounds a little weird, I know, but there is some anecdotal evidence that it might occur in this election.
I will not call this the most important election of my lifetime. That happened four years ago. The second most important was eight years ago. As much of a disaster as I thought a Bush presidency might become eight years ago, I must say, it is breathtaking, quite literally, at how much bigger a disaster than I was able to comprehend, it did, in fact, become.
So there. It is the third most important election in my lifetime. Maybe fourth. That is because regardless of the way John McCain has run his campaign, I cannot wrap my mind around how he could possibly not be better that Vice-President Dark Lord and his minion the President.
Tomorrow night, I fully expect to know that Barack Obama has won the election. Hopefully, my map is pretty accurate and Barack goes in with a big mandate. I doubt that he will go in without some sort of mandate, however. Maybe he'll "only" get 330 electoral votes. But he will win. Our long winter will finally be over.
Pat McGovern
It's got electoral votes. It's what politicians crave.
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